The report found there is a risk of building in too much capacity if demand forecasts are overstated. Previous forecasts by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) and utility PNL – which is locked into long-term power purchase agreements with independent power producers – have historically overestimated increases in electricity demand in Java-Bali and Sumatra. Historical demand projections in Java-Bali and Sumatra have a tendency to overestimate future demand growth. The models, which uncovered expected ‘least cost’ solutions, were created using world-leading PLEXOS software, developed by Australian company Energy Exemplar. The models in the new Roadmap build on data from the 2018-2027 RUPTL, incorporating also investment trajectories, data on supply-demand balance in the power system, and proxy data where critical data was not publicly available.
The study underlying the Roadmap modelled several such pathways, focusing on locations where most of the population lives and where about 90 per cent of the electricity is produced and consumed, namely Java-Bali (15 provinces) and Sumatra (8 provinces).Įvery year, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), the state-owned electricity utility, publishes an Electricity General Plan (Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik or RUPTL), which maps electricity demand and supply for the next decade. There are several possible pathways that Indonesia can take to meet its energy and climate targets with a growing population. Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populous country. This was followed by a panel discussion with key experts from government, industry, academia and independent practitioners. Dr Liebman, lead author of the report, highlighted results and details behind the study. The seminar, ‘A roadmap for Indonesia’s power sector: how renewable energy can power Java-Bali and Sumatra’, investigated the benefits of renewable energy in Indonesia.įabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, who commissioned the report, opened the event with the key findings.
The report presents a joint study from IESR, the Australia-Indonesia Centre, Agora Energiewende, and the Monash Grid Innovation Hub. On the 21 February this year Dr Ariel Liebman helped to launch ‘ A Roadmap for Indonesia’s Power Sector’ at a seminar hosted by the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) in Jakarta.
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